Why people are probably going to keep using today's Unixes
A while back I wrote about how the value locked up in the Unix API makes it durable. The short version is that there's a huge amount of effort and thus value invested in both the kernels (that provide one level of the Unix API) and in all of the programs and tools and systems that run on top of them, using the Unix APIs. If you start to depart from this API you start to lose access to all of those things.
The flipside of this is why I think people are probably going to keep using current Unixes in the future instead of creating new Unix-like OSes or Unix OSes. To a large extent, the potential value in departing from current Unixes lies in doing things differently at some API level, and once you depart from the API you're fighting the durable power of the Unix API. If you don't depart from the Unix API, it's hard to see much of a point; 'we wrote a different kernel but we still support all of the Unix API' (and variants) don't appear to have all that high a value. You're spending a lot of effort to wind up in essentially the same place.
(There was a day when you could argue that current Unix kernels and systems were fatally flawed and you could make important improvements. Given how well they work today and how much effort they represent, that argument is no longer very convincing. Perhaps we could do better, but can we do lots better, enough to justify the cost?)
In one way this is depressing; it means that the era of many Unixes and many Unix-like OSes flourishing is over. Not only is the cost of departing from Unix too high, but so is the cost of reimplementing it and possibly even keeping up with the leading implementations. The Unixes we have today are likely to be the only Unixes we ever have, and probably not all of them are going to survive over the long term (and that's apart from the commercial ones that are on life support today, like Solaris).
(This isn't really a new observation; Rob Pike basically made it a long time ago in the context of academic systems software research (see the mention in this entry).)
But this doesn't mean that innovation in Unix and the Unix API is
dead; it just means that it has to happen in a different way. You
can't drive innovation by creating a new Unix or Unix-like, but you
can drive innovation by putting something new into a Unix that's
popular enough, so it becomes broadly available and people start
taking advantage of it (the obvious candidate here is Linux). It's
possible that OpenBSD's
will turn out to be such an innovation (whether other Unixes implement
it as a system call or as a library function that uses native
(Note that not all attempts to extend or change the practical Unix API turn out to be good ideas over the long term.)
It also doesn't always mean that what we wind up with is really 'Unix' in a conventional sense. One thing that's already happening is that an existing Unix is used as the heart of something that has custom layers wrapped around it. Android, iOS, and macOS are all versions of this; they have a core layer that uses an existing Unix kernel and so on but then a bunch of things specific to themselves on top. These systems have harvested what they find to be the useful value of their Unix and then ignored the rest of it. Of course all of them represent a great deal of effort in their custom components, and they wouldn't have happened if the people involved couldn't extract a lot of value from that additional work.