The uncertain possible futures of Unix graphical desktops
Once upon a time, the future of Unix desktops looked fairly straightforward. Everyone ran on X, so the major threat to cross-Unix portability in major desktops was the use of Linux only APIs, which became especially D-Bus and systemd related things. Unix desktops that were less attached to tight integration with the Linux environment would probably stay easily available on FreeBSD, OpenBSD, and so on.
What happened to this nice simple vision was Wayland becoming the future of (Linux) graphics. Linux is the primary target of KDE and especially Gnome, so Wayland being the future on Linux has gotten developers for Gnome to start moving toward a Wayland-only vision. Wayland is unapologetically not cross-platform the way X was, which leaves other Unixes with a problem and creates a number of possible future for Unix desktops.
In one future, other Unixes imitate Linux, implementing enough APIs to run Wayland and the other Linux things that in practice it depends on, and as a result they can probably continue to provide the big Linux-focused desktop environments like Gnome. I believe that FreeBSD is working on this approach, although I don't know if Gnome on Wayland on FreeBSD works yet. This allows the other Unix to mostly look like Linux, desktop-wise. As an additional benefit, it allows the other Unix to also use other, more minimal Wayland compositors (ie, window managers) that people may like, such as Sway (the one everyone mentions).
In another future, other Unixes don't attempt to chase Linux by implementing APIs to get Wayland and Gnome and so on to run, and instead stick with X. As desktops, major toolkits, and applications drop support for X or break working on it through lack of use and lack of caring, these Unixes are likely to increasingly be left with old-fashioned X environments that are a lot more 'window manager' than they are 'desktop'. There are people, me included, who would be more or less happy with this state of affairs (in my case, as long as Firefox and a few other applications keep working). I suspect that this is the path that OpenBSD will stick with, and my guess is that anyone using OpenBSD for their desktop or laptop environment will be happy with this.
An unpleasant variant of this future comes about if Firefox and other applications are aggressive about dropping support for X. This would leave X-only Unixes as a backwater, stuck with (at best) old versions of important tools such as web browsers. There are some people who would still be happy with this, but probably not many.
Broadly, I think there is going to be a split between what you could call the Linux desktop (Wayland based with a major desktop environment such as Gnome, even if it's on FreeBSD instead of Linux), perhaps the Wayland desktop (Wayland based with compositor like Sway instead of a full blown desktop environment), and an increasingly limited Unix desktop that over time will find itself having to move from being a desktop environment to being a window manager environment (as the desktop environments stop working well on X).
PS: One big question about the future of the Unix desktop is how many desktop environments will get good Wayland support and then abandon X. Right now, there are a fair number of desktop environments that have little or no Wayland support and a reasonable user base. The existence and popularity of these environments helps drive demand for continued X support in toolkits and so on. Of course, major Linux distributions may throw X-only desktops overboard someday, regardless of usage.
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